As vaccines continue to be administered the end of the pandemic appears to be at hand. People are resuming normal lives and pent up demand is being unleashed. Consumers are looking forward to a summer filled with travel and congregation with family and friends. Even the Fed is noticing the brighter outlook. The world is opening back up but it probably won’t ever be the same as it was before the Pandemic.
Succinct Summary: Consumer spending remains strong and Black Friday was successful. A third wave of COVID has made the near term outlook worse, but the medium to long term looks much brighter thanks to vaccines. Tech spending continues to outpace overall GDP growth and probably will continue to surge after the pandemic is over. The driver of spending has moved from devices towards data infrastructure and management.
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Succinct Summary: The last week of summer before labor day is usually one of the slowest weeks of the year but this year it feels like things are moving at an incredibly fast pace. Companies are looking to the future and beginning to permanently rationalize their cost structure. Business travel budgets are likely to be cut for a long time. Temporary layoffs are also becoming permanent. In the near term economic activity is still very strong though. We’re seeing a terrific end of the summer. And the Fed is hoping it stays that way in the fall.
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A Personal Note: A lot has happened in the last two weeks we have been away. We start on a very positive note—warm congratulations to my co-author Scott Krisiloff and his wife on the birth of their beautiful twins this past week. On a different note, the challenge of racism has come to the forefront of global news. This week, we have a special section on quotes on the reactions from corporate management teams on the issued of racism. The bottom line is that we have a problem that needs fixing. I have also written a personal article about my experience of racism in Scandinavia. – Erick Mokaya
Succinct Summary: There are some glimmers of hope across such industries like airlines, travel and retail as demand picks up from the April lows. We are, however, being cautioned about being too excited and urged to be cautious. All in all, there is significant pent-up demand.
Succinct Summary: The story has been the same for most of this year. Consumer spending and sentiment remains strong while business investment and sentiment stay weak. There may be signs of an industrial uptick in China though.
Succinct Summary: The trade war has been weighing on the economy for most of the year. Businesses have been hesitant to invest due to the uncertainty and have been trying to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Still, the consumer has been remarkably resilient. Overall the economy is stable but not quite as strong as it was a couple of years ago.