The Transcripts

The Transcript 02.22.21

February 22, 2021

Vaccines continue to be administered and supply will likely open up, even more, starting in April. Consumers have been dreaming of a return to normal and we appear to be at the cusp. The result of vaccination could be an explosion of pent-up demand for hardest-hit industries and a much better second half than people expect. Still, strong demand is putting pressure on supply chains and creating inflationary pressures. Given that stimulus is dependent on a K-shaped recovery, normalization could bring its own economic disruptions.

The Transcripts

The Transcript 11.09.20

By Mokaya on

November 9, 2020

- The Transcripts

Succinct Summary: It was hard to pay attention to anything other than politics last week, but we’re trying our best to keep a focus on the economy. Economic activity appears robust from the earnings reports that we’re reading. Even the hardest-hit industries appear to be performing much better than expected. The tech industries that surged may be normalizing though. We’re getting a strong new surge in Covid cases, but people seem to feel more prepared than they did last spring.

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The Transcripts

The Transcript 08.10.20

By Mokaya on

August 10, 2020

- The Transcripts

Succinct Summary: Many companies and individuals have been hard hit by the pandemic and are having a tough time. All eyes are on another stimulus package to try to cushion them. Worryingly, cases are rising worldwide even in areas that were thought to have contained the virus. The picture from July and early August is one of a mixed and uneven recovery.

The Transcripts

The Transcript 05.11.20

By Mokaya on

May 11, 2020

- The Transcripts

Succinct Summary: Companies are reporting signs of improvement in the economy. But the rebound is coming off such a low base that these numbers would still be considered very bad in any other environment. The duration of this rebound will depend heavily on whether or not there’s a second wave of infections. Still, even without the virus it probably will take the economy a long time to recover from such a severe shock.

On an industry basis: private capital markets are searching for price levels; consumers are dreaming of the future; tech is chugging along; and the industrial/energy economy is feeling immense pain.