Confidence is high in the US thanks to strong vaccination rates. What will the new normal look like though? Offices could re-open by summer, but how much will we continue to work from home? And how much will we travel for business? Supply chains are still bottlenecked, leading to inflation pressure. The blockage of the Suez Canal won’t help that
The Year in Review: 2020 was an unprecedented year and The Transcript covered the economy throughout all of its twists and turns. Even though China was battling Covid in 2019, no one really knew what was in store for all of us in 2020. Technology, capital markets, and housing were three industries that boomed. While the stimulus was integral, the economic hero of 2020 was the US consumer. Optimism is high that 2021 will be a more normal year.
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Succinct Summary: The economy has improved a lot since the bottom, and headline economic activity is nearing a full recovery. However, the recovery has not been shared equally. There have been a small number of big economic winners and a much larger number of economic losers from COVID. This will help keep the government pushing for more stimulus for a long time. In the past, this stimulus has tended to help the winners even more.
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Succinct Summary: The economy has had a strong rebound, but the rising virus cases in some states are a cause for worry. Consumers are fatigued from the virus but starting to accept that it may take a while for things to get back to normal. And the old normal may never return. Technology companies have been major beneficiaries of quarantine. Companies are “splurging” on tech.
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Succinct Summary: It is quite clear by now that we are in a recession. The hope is that this is a different kind of recession and that we will be out of it quickly. But that depends on the trajectory of containing the virus. The good news is that things in China look better after containing the virus.
Editor’s Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading and want to help us keep it going, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month).