It’s hard to remember that there’s still a pandemic going on. Vaccination rates have increased and it looks like we may be on the cusp of a roaring 20s. Consumers are healthy and eager to make up for lost time–booking travel and eating out. Offices will probably re-open by the end of summer but working from home is likely to remain an option.
Succinct Summary: Vaccinations are happening around the US and the world. It’s been a little slower than hoped but that may be because of the logistical challenges of administering vaccines at long-term care facilities. We are on the cusp of mass dissemination, and there should be enough capacity to make sure that the population is vaccinated quickly. We’ve lost a year of our lives to COVID but the finish line is (hopefully) in sight. Vaccination should unleash a huge amount of pent up demand. Banks, which started to report this week, have showed that credit performance metrics have been better than anyone dreamed possible in March of 2020. They’re releasing reserves and preparing to return capital to shareholders. Tech spend is also booming.
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The Year in Review: 2020 was an unprecedented year and The Transcript covered the economy throughout all of its twists and turns. Even though China was battling Covid in 2019, no one really knew what was in store for all of us in 2020. Technology, capital markets, and housing were three industries that boomed. While the stimulus was integral, the economic hero of 2020 was the US consumer. Optimism is high that 2021 will be a more normal year.
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Succinct Summary: Pfizer announced that its vaccine is 90% effective and that gave a boost to market confidence. The vaccine could be great news for the industry and great news for society. Pfizer says that it will have over 1B doses ready next year. The vaccine could lead to some reflationary outcomes.
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Succinct Summary: Infections are accelerating in the US and it’s unclear how or if this has affected economic activity. The economy seems to be continuing to improve. Yet distressed borrowers are starting to reach the end of their reserves. Bankruptcies are likely to begin to surge. Washington is working hard to pass another stimulus bill to prevent this from happening.
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