The economic dam is bursting and the economy is booming. Demand in the US was described as “very, very strong” and “phenomenal” thanks to strong consumer balance sheets and vaccinations. Supply chains are still disrupted and there are significant inflation pressures.
Succinct Summary: The US got a new President last week, and the new administration is pledging more stimulus. The economy continues to chug along though and there are signs of tight capacity in some segments, especially transportation networks. Could additional stimulus lead to higher-than-expected inflation?
Succinct Summary: The economy continues its two speed recovery, but there are some signs that growth may be slowing. Even companies that benefitted from the pandemic, like Netflix, are seeing the after-effect of demand that was pulled forward to earlier in the year. Elections will be a key source of uncertainty in the coming weeks. And COVID infections are stubbornly high. But consumers are going crazy at home.
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Succinct Summary: The decline in economic activity has been huge and the recovery may take longer than expected. However, bulls are betting on massive stimulus in an environment that was already highly liquid prior to the Covid crisis. Consumers are itching to get back to normal and some hard hit industries are seeing stabilizing trends. But the economy is subject to the machinations of non-economic forces: governments and a poorly understood disease.
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Succinct Summary: It’s hard not to be happy about the economy. The consumer is strong and business sentiment has turned positive. Recession fears have abated thanks to the actions of central banks and a trade truce with China. Markets are feeling optimistic.