Tens of millions of Americans have now been fully vaccinated and the fun is just beginning. Re-opening euphoria and pent-up demand could lead to an economic boom that lasts into 2023. Supply chains, especially semiconductors, are still feeling the effects of Covid, and price pressures continue.
Succinct Summary: Most parts of the economy have normalized and the economic winners are booming. Technology, cloud service and e-commerce are leading the way and other industries are surging as well. Financial service firms focused on M&A advisory, trading and restructuring are seeing strong business. The housing market is also on fire with new home sales up 32% y/y. This week’s election and a renewed wave of COVID could dampen activity, but for now, the economy is doing remarkably well. COVID may have led to structurally higher productivity.
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Succinct Summary: Infections are accelerating in the US and it’s unclear how or if this has affected economic activity. The economy seems to be continuing to improve. Yet distressed borrowers are starting to reach the end of their reserves. Bankruptcies are likely to begin to surge. Washington is working hard to pass another stimulus bill to prevent this from happening.
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Succinct Summary: 2020 begins with a surge of optimism. The consumer continues to be a bright spot for the economy and business sentiment seems to be turning a corner. Fundamentals are strong and the cherry on top is that interest rates remain low. Capital markets love this environment.
Succinct Summary: The consumer is strong but manufacturing is weak. Everyone is tired of Brexit and tech IPOs probably still have a path to market as long as they have a path to profitability.
Succinct Summary: Many are concerned that growth will slow but current US economic fundamentals are strong with high business and consumer confidence. Inflation pressures have mounted and some of those price increases are making their way to consumer goods. There’s more anxiety in the global economy, especially emerging markets.