The US economy is surging and life is returning to normal. Consumers have healthy balance sheets and inflation is a hot topic. Companies in hard-hit industries are even talking about having a difficult time finding staff. The Fed seems to be seeing a different picture of the economy though and has no intention of tapering pandemic era stimulus until it’s clear that the economy has returned to maximum employment and inflation is running above 2%.
It’s hard to remember that there’s still a pandemic going on. Vaccination rates have increased and it looks like we may be on the cusp of a roaring 20s. Consumers are healthy and eager to make up for lost time–booking travel and eating out. Offices will probably re-open by the end of summer but working from home is likely to remain an option.
As vaccines continue to be administered the end of the pandemic appears to be at hand. People are resuming normal lives and pent up demand is being unleashed. Consumers are looking forward to a summer filled with travel and congregation with family and friends. Even the Fed is noticing the brighter outlook. The world is opening back up but it probably won’t ever be the same as it was before the Pandemic.
Succinct Summary: Consumer spending remains strong and Black Friday was successful. A third wave of COVID has made the near term outlook worse, but the medium to long term looks much brighter thanks to vaccines. Tech spending continues to outpace overall GDP growth and probably will continue to surge after the pandemic is over. The driver of spending has moved from devices towards data infrastructure and management.
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Succinct Summary: Most parts of the economy have normalized and the economic winners are booming. Technology, cloud service and e-commerce are leading the way and other industries are surging as well. Financial service firms focused on M&A advisory, trading and restructuring are seeing strong business. The housing market is also on fire with new home sales up 32% y/y. This week’s election and a renewed wave of COVID could dampen activity, but for now, the economy is doing remarkably well. COVID may have led to structurally higher productivity.
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Succinct Summary: There were a lot of major data points about the economy last week but the biggest news of all seemed to be just how well tech companies did despite the massive economic dislocation. In a quarter where GDP fell at a 33% annualized rate, Apple managed to grow revenue by 11%! Stimulus probably played some role in tech companies’ strong performance, but beyond the stimulus is the fact that COVID has pushed everyone to spend even more time at home and on the internet. The behavioral shifts appear to be long-lasting too. 20 years after the dot com bubble, the internet is still not done reshaping society.
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Succinct Summary: We are clearly in a recession with very low visibility on how we are going to come out of it. Companies are also seeing consumers move away from credit as they also shift away from discretionary spending. On the positive, there are some promising signs of recovery as shorter cycle businesses like auto come back.
A Personal Note: A lot has happened in the last two weeks we have been away. We start on a very positive note—warm congratulations to my co-author Scott Krisiloff and his wife on the birth of their beautiful twins this past week. On a different note, the challenge of racism has come to the forefront of global news. This week, we have a special section on quotes on the reactions from corporate management teams on the issued of racism. The bottom line is that we have a problem that needs fixing. I have also written a personal article about my experience of racism in Scandinavia. – Erick Mokaya
Succinct Summary: There are some glimmers of hope across such industries like airlines, travel and retail as demand picks up from the April lows. We are, however, being cautioned about being too excited and urged to be cautious. All in all, there is significant pent-up demand.
Succinct Summary: The Transcript this week is all about the Coronavirus that is rapidly spreading globally and crippling the global economy. This is not only an economic setback but also a major humanitarian crisis. We hope, as do many, that the effects are transitory and that this will be our finest hour!
Succinct Summary: The year got off to a strong start. There’s a high level of optimism which has helped fuel industries that rely on long term confidence like M&A and construction. Can the Coronavirus halt the economy’s momentum? Seems unlikely.